Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x927e…a9a5 sports 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-16%) realized −$95 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%112W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$83
other 43% −$24
world 1% $0
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 53% -6.8%
≤30d 219 -21.7% -29.2% 51% 42% -30.3%
≤90d 219 -21.7% -29.2% 51% 42% -30.3%
all 219 -21.7% -29.2% 51% 42% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 42% -30.3%
10% -36.0% 30% -37.0%
15% -42.1% 22% -43.1%
20% -47.8% 15% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$95
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses112 / 107
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions49
Markets (closed)219 / 268
History coverage17d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 45¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 92¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 66¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 84¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 87¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 85¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 83¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Colombia 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +149%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$1 +51%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +409%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +74%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +48%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +95%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 $0 +16%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2 $0 -5%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +35%
Will UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $2 57m
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 72¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $2 4h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $2 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $2 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $2 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $2 5h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 83¢ $2 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 6h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 87¢ $2 6h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $2 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 92¢ $2 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 23¢ $2 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $2 7h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 7h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $2 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 11h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $2 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.43 · official $205.43 (match) · 378 history records