Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x927e…cd69 sports 655 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,392 (-33%) realized −$1,401 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%420W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$2
14 days+$17
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$147
politics 24% −$1,014
world 5% −$215
other 3% +$1
economics 0% −$20
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +3.3% -6.5% 69% 69% -10.0%
≤30d 172 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 65% -13.8%
≤90d 642 -3.4% -12.6% 65% 64% -14.3%
all 653 -5.0% -14.0% 64% 63% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 63% -39.7%
10% -22.3% 47% -45.4%
15% -29.8% 32% -50.7%
20% -36.7% 20% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$1,401
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses420 / 233
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)653 / 655
History coverage95d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 653 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jacopo Vasami 66¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Nicolas Kicker 46¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 232 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $10 +$6 +56%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 +$10 +197%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $5 +$8 +164%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $20 +$7 +36%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $10 +$3 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $10 +$7 +65%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 46¢ $5 31m
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 66¢ $10 1h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 77¢ $10 1h
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 86¢ $20 3h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 81¢ $10 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 74¢ $10 5h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 86¢ $10 5h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 85¢ $5 6h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 89¢ $10 10h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 29¢ $5 11h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 70¢ $5 23h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 56¢ $10 27h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 79¢ $10 28h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 90¢ $10 30h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 55¢ $10 31h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $10 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 47h
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 63¢ $10 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 76¢ $10 2d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 71¢ $10 2d
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 72¢ $10 2d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 43¢ $5 2d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Jesper de Jong 84¢ $10 2d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 62¢ $10 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 33¢ $5 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 35¢ $10 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 62¢ $10 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 67¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 84¢ $20 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Harry Wendelken 88¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.57 · official $23.57 (match) · 1085 history records