Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x927d…301a crypto 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$517 (-7%) realized −$517 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%58W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$243
crypto 30% −$126
other 14% −$58
politics 3% −$4
world 3% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -66.0% -69.2% 33% 0% -56.1%
all 111 -20.3% -27.9% 52% 38% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 38% -15.6%
10% -34.8% 23% -23.7%
15% -41.1% 14% -31.0%
20% -46.8% 13% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$517
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses58 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage245d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Lakers vs. Suns Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 26 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Hornets vs. Lakers Jan 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Pelicans Jan 07 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $104 +$6 +6%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 02 $103 +$7 +6%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $897 +$10 +1%
Solana Up or Down - December 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Dec 25 $19 +$11 +59%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 11 $68 −$68 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Nov 16 $887 +$18 +2%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $60 +$107 +178%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $55 −$45 -82%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $54 −$5 -9%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $91 +$215 +236%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Nov 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Nov 04 $690 +$7 +1%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Nov 04 $27 −$26 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 03 $105 +$65 +61%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $94 −$11 -11%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Warriors vs. Bucks Nov 01 $285 +$3 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 31 $248 −$4 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Oct 26 $19 +$7 +36%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $51 +$9 +18%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 24 $20 +$20 +100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $487 +$10 +2%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 24 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Oct 24 $6 +$6 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98,000 on October 24? Oct 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,200 on October 24? Oct 24 $10 −$5 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $116,000 on October 24? Oct 24 $10 −$7 -70%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,300 on October 24? Oct 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $10 −$6 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 23? Oct 23 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Oct 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 23 $9 +$6 +67%
Warriors vs. Lakers Oct 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5 Oct 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Oct 18 $3 −$2 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $5 1h
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder $10 18d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 91d
Lakers vs. Suns BUY Lakers 60¢ $100 109d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 143d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 143d
Hornets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 60¢ $100 151d
Lakers vs. Pelicans BUY Lakers 66¢ $100 161d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $804 173d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 22¢ $36 181d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 22¢ $7 181d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 22¢ $1 181d
Solana Up or Down - December 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $19 183d
Spurs vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 34¢ $68 187d
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Clippers 98¢ $887 213d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 36¢ $60 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 10¢ $10 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $55 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $2 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $48 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster $5 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 30¢ $27 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $7 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $42 219d
Spurs vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 90¢ $306 222d
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers BUY Thunder 11¢ $4 222d
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers BUY Thunder 11¢ $5 222d
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers BUY Thunder 11¢ $0 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.97 · official $9.62 (match) · 558 history records