Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x927c…6633 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,447 (+2%) realized +$6,008 · open −$561
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%35W / 34L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,519per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Fees−$1,170est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19,220
7 days+$20,359
14 days+$8,552
30 days+$8,549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$17,948
sports 47% −$11,048
crypto 1% +$1,088
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +29.7% +17.3% 69% 53% -1.1%
≤30d 69 -3.8% -12.9% 51% 39% -6.4%
≤90d 69 -3.8% -12.9% 51% 39% -6.4%
all 69 -3.8% -12.9% 51% 39% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 39% -6.4%
10% -21.3% 38% -15.3%
15% ← realistic here -28.9% 30% -23.5%
20% -35.8% 17% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,494) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,576 vs −$1,370 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,008
Unrealized−$561
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses35 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,170
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3,519
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Chicago Sky 75¢ 0¢ $561 $0 −$561 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $53,804 +$3,510 +6%
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,342 +$458 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,751 +$3,149 +114%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $30,411 +$7,669 +25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $2,549 −$2,503 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $2,598 −$926 -36%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40,414 +$1,909 +5%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $52 −$52 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $3,108 +$592 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $655 −$655 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13,964 +$508 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,377 +$2,023 +147%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $2,812 +$1,038 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4,158 +$1,492 +36%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2,142 +$1,008 +47%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,080 +$127 +6%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,723 +$577 +34%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $2,009 −$2,008 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $345 −$339 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $2,036 +$3,999 +196%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $2,392 +$3,029 +127%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $248 −$248 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $1,685 −$1,683 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,339 +$12,051 +190%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $19,190 −$19,190 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $309 +$2,011 +650%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $876 +$1,464 +167%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $2,494 +$806 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $164 −$160 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,911 +$1,089 +57%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,281 +$119 +4%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $741 +$501 +68%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $1,035 +$465 +45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,691 +$1,929 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,636 −$1,475 -90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $269 −$264 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,186 +$363 +31%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,194 −$3,173 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,723 −$1,701 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,731 −$2,709 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,423 +$777 +55%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $259 −$255 -99%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,334 +$607 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,387 +$511 +37%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $310 −$308 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $982 −$968 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $796 +$373 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 75¢ $565 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $63 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $119 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $745 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $1,970 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $13 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $11,523 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $127 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $38 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $3 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $8,272 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $83 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $41 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $38 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $585 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $17 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $238 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $698 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $47 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $83 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $472 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $47 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $47 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $238 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $5,994 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $337 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $590 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $34 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $325 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $84 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.38 (match) · 663 history records