Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

92
0x9278…12bc
sports · 4 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$15 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Mary Stoiana 76¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $77 −$74 -96%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $43 +$35 +81%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $34 +$8 +24%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 12 $19 +$16 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Mary Stoiana 76¢ $77 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 53¢ $43 11h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 78¢ $34 13h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit BUY No 52¢ $19 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +22.2% +10.5% 75% 75% -17.8%
≤30d 4 +22.2% +10.5% 75% 75% -17.8%
≤90d 4 +22.2% +10.5% 75% 75% -17.8%
all 4 +22.2% +10.5% 75% 75% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 75% -17.8%
10% -0.0% 75% -25.6%
15% -9.7% 50% -32.8%
20% -18.5% 50% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.05 (match) · 7 history records