Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

92 0x9278…9a1b other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$1,281 (-20%) realized −$1,265 · open −$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip

Net edge-61%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$906per market

Trades / day10.1pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$1,999now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-55.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-50.8%	-55.5%	33%	33%	-37.4%
≤30d	3	-50.8%	-55.5%	33%	33%	-37.4%
≤90d	3	-50.8%	-55.5%	33%	33%	-37.4%
all	3	-50.8%	-55.5%	33%	33%	-37.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.1 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-55.5%	33%	-37.4%
10% ← realistic here	-59.8%	33%	-43.4%
15%	-63.7%	33%	-48.8%
20%	-67.2%	0%	-53.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -31% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -51% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$960 vs −$1,142 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,999

Realized−$1,265

Unrealized−$16

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions4

Markets (closed)3 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$906

Trades / day10.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$2,000	$1,985	−$15 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Yes	14¢	13¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$2,188	−$2,188	-100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$96	−$96	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$2,020	+$960	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$303	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$1,717	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$303	20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$168	20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$1,717	21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	100¢	$2,979	21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	67¢	$303	23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	67¢	$1,717	23h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	56¢	$51	28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	56¢	$46	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,999.44 · official $1,999.45 (match) · 15 history records