Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
92 0x9277…bb3a politics 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate17%18W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$15
other 41% −$16
sports 7% +$85
economics 5% −$3
tech 4% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 91 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 4% -9.5%
all 109 +0.9% -8.7% 17% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 9% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 9% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 6% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses18 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage116d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $328 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $352 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $325 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $343 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $302 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $305 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $285 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $345 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $336 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 30 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $286 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 28 $273 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $281 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $263 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $323 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $336 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $310 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $349 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 21 $346 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $330 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $607 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $354 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $328 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $326 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $295 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 17 $342 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $289 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $608 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 15 $366 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $351 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $553 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $309 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $371 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $315 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $349 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 41h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 41h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 11d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $318 11d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $318 29d
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $352 32d
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $352 33d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $335 33d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $335 33d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $281 36d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $281 36d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $303 38d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $303 44d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $288 44d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 44d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $325 44d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $325 44d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $343 44d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $343 45d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $276 45d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $276 46d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $302 46d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $302 47d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $305 47d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $305 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records