Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9271…a28a sports 1098 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,853 (-5%) realized −$4,841 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%435W / 653L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$734est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$335
7 days+$1,019
14 days+$2,188
30 days−$1,535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$966
other 12% −$4,049
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +80.3% +63.1% 71% 71% +47.8%
≤30d 97 +6.5% -3.6% 43% 43% -22.3%
≤90d 506 -6.8% -15.7% 40% 39% -18.2%
all 1088 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 40% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 40% -14.0%
10% -23.5% 40% -22.3%
15% -30.9% 39% -29.8%
20% -37.7% 38% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$85 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$4,841
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses435 / 653
Est. fees paid−$734
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1088 / 1098
History coverage146d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1088 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 46¢ 46¢ $86 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Raphael Perot 49¢ 50¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $29 $32 +$2 (+9%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $20 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $5 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $35 +$58 +165%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $24 +$69 +291%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $41 +$52 +129%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $28 +$62 +216%
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Jun 16 $88 −$86 -99%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 15 $265 +$219 +83%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $142 −$140 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $142 −$140 -99%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $57 +$86 +152%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $213 +$298 +140%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $89 +$213 +238%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $142 +$138 +97%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $127 +$102 +80%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $5 +$8 +165%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $141 +$155 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $96 −$94 -98%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $147 +$149 +101%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $315 +$433 +137%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: Monaco (-3.5) Jun 08 $94 +$84 +90%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $14 +$29 +206%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $29 +$64 +216%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $30 +$58 +197%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Alina Charaeva Jun 07 $10 +$22 +216%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Jun 07 $8 −$8 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Anouk Koevermans Jun 07 $29 −$29 -98%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $88 +$55 +63%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $30 +$19 +63%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $118 −$116 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $29 +$51 +172%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $29 +$51 +172%
Sweden vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $70 +$56 +79%
Makarska: Lucie Havlickova vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 04 $88 +$153 +172%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $148 +$172 +117%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $70 −$70 -99%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 04 $119 −$116 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $29 +$49 +165%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $142 +$112 +79%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson Jun 03 $29 +$32 +109%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $153 +$112 +73%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Tristan Boyer Jun 03 $56 −$55 -98%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis Jun 02 $29 −$29 -98%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 02 $176 −$174 -99%
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Jun 02 $51 −$2 -3%
Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) Jun 02 $305 −$302 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 02 $29 −$29 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $95 +$106 +112%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 31 $190 −$187 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 49¢ $45 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $29 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $59 8h
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) BUY Pliskova 53¢ $59 20h
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) BUY Pliskova 54¢ $29 20h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 31¢ $28 23h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 25¢ $24 24h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 43¢ $41 27h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 42¢ $40 38h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 37¢ $35 39h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $36 2d
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Bartunkova 54¢ $177 2d
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Bartunkova 54¢ $88 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $142 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $142 3d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 41¢ $119 5d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 41¢ $95 5d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 39¢ $57 5d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 29¢ $34 6d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 29¢ $55 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $142 6d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Laura Siegemund 25¢ $48 6d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Laura Siegemund 25¢ $30 6d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone BUY Francesco Forti 47¢ $54 6d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone BUY Francesco Forti 47¢ $87 6d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 31¢ $59 7d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 31¢ $37 7d
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko BUY Varvara Lepchenko 49¢ $57 7d
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko BUY Varvara Lepchenko 49¢ $91 7d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 37¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.17 · official $209.17 (match) · 2426 history records