Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x926f…c343 crypto 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%93W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$317
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$176
sports 34% +$311
other 9% −$206
world 3% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.1% -25.9% 50% 45% -9.8%
≤30d 150 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 56% -10.7%
≤90d 150 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 56% -10.7%
all 150 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 56% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 56% -10.7%
10% -16.5% 51% -19.3%
15% -24.5% 44% -27.1%
20% -31.9% 34% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses93 / 57
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
History coverage19d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 49¢ 69¢ $160 $227 +$67 (+42%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $138 +$114 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $83 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $36 +$17 +48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $138 +$185 +134%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$136 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $136 −$134 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $148 +$108 +73%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 02 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 02 $72 +$37 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 02 $51 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 02 $54 −$36 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 02 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 02 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $152 +$37 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 02 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $162 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 97¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $162 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $81 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $252 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 54¢ $138 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $18 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 38h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $102 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $36 46h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $138 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $138 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $136 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $20 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $256 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $148 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $21 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $27 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $51 4d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $9 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.45 · official $385.48 (match) · 309 history records