Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x926f…f72e sports 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 378d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$343 (-6%) realized −$246 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%54W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days−$15
14 days+$115
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$81
other 23% −$210
weather 13% −$2
crypto 5% −$87
world 3% +$19
politics 1% −$36
economics 1% −$44
tech 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +36.5% +23.5% 25% 23% -10.8%
≤30d 124 +22.0% +10.4% 31% 28% -6.7%
≤90d 125 +23.4% +11.6% 32% 29% -6.3%
all 167 +12.9% +2.1% 32% 29% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 29% -16.1%
10% -7.6% 26% -24.2%
15% -16.6% 25% -31.5%
20% -24.7% 22% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$19 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$246
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses54 / 113
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions20
Markets (closed)167 / 189
History coverage378d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? No 50¢ 24¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+22%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-24%)
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+117%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-35%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $19 $3 −$16 (-83%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+83%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-94%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$81 +786%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$52 +508%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $61 +$119 +193%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +221%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 +$42 +814%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 +$34 +657%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 +$23 +111%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -8%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 25? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 15 $32 +$17 +54%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will V.J. Edgecombe win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 31? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 10? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will LeBron James join a new team this offseason? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 15 $49 −$24 -49%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 6? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 15 $181 −$75 -41%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 +$22 +108%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $29 +$21 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $46 17h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 19h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 19h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 19h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 20h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 50¢ $55 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $61 33h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 33h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 46h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 46h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 6¢ $26 46h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 46h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 20¢ $25 46h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 46h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 31¢ $43 46h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 47h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.87 · official $215.87 (match) · 699 history records