Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:31:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x926e…d1ad crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$6 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$4
politics 21% $0
world 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.2% -3.9% 67% 17% -8.6%
≤30d 6 +6.2% -3.9% 67% 17% -8.6%
≤90d 6 +6.2% -3.9% 67% 17% -8.6%
all 6 +6.2% -3.9% 67% 17% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 17% -8.6%
10% -13.1% 17% -17.4%
15% -21.5% 17% -25.4%
20% -29.2% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$43 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.71 · official $96.71 (match) · 20 history records