Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

92 0x926e…760c politics 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$186 (+19%) realized +$296 · open −$110

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip

Net edge+29%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$161per market

Trades / day7.8pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+34.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+48.5%	+34.4%	100%	100%	+34.4%
≤30d	1	+48.5%	+34.4%	100%	100%	+34.4%
≤90d	1	+48.5%	+34.4%	100%	100%	+34.4%
all	1	+48.5%	+34.4%	100%	100%	+34.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+34.4%	100%	+34.4%
10%	+21.5%	100%	+21.5%
15%	+9.8%	100%	+9.8%
20%	-1.0%	0%	-1.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +49% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$181 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$468

Realized+$296

Unrealized−$110

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$161

Trades / day7.8

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	65¢	64¢	$150	$146	−$4 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$78	$68	−$10 (-13%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	17¢	6¢	$150	$56	−$94 (-63%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Jun 22	$372	+$181	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	BUY Yes	7¢	$81	1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	BUY No	65¢	$152	1h
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	BUY Yes	17¢	$155	1h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY Yes	29¢	$102	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	SELL No	98¢	$553	13h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	BUY No	63¢	$152	16h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	BUY No	67¢	$220	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.36 · official $471.14 (match) · 8 history records