Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
92 0x926a…7a6c other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 775d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$31 (-18%) realized −$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$3
crypto 24% +$6
politics 7% +$6
sports 6% −$11
tech 6% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +85.6% +68.0% 100% 100% +68.0%
≤30d 1 +85.6% +68.0% 100% 100% +68.0%
≤90d 1 +85.6% +68.0% 100% 100% +68.0%
all 12 -18.5% -26.2% 50% 50% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 50% -13.4%
10% -33.3% 50% -21.7%
15% -39.7% 42% -29.3%
20% -45.6% 33% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

775d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage775d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $30 +$26 +86%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $11 −$11 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $11 +$7 +67%
Will Tim Scott win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Oct 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win Group D? Oct 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Portugal win? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin above $69,000 on June 7? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +89%
Will the Netherlands win? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +69%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $21 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 2h
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY China 26¢ $11 156d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 1¢ $10 524d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 616d
Will Switzerland win? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 740d
Will Germany win? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 740d
Will Portugal win? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 741d
Will France win Group D? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 741d
Will France win Group D? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 742d
Will the Netherlands win? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 743d
Bitcoin above $69,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 755d
Will Tim Scott win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 755d
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $1 775d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 775d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.68 · official $48.68 (match) · 26 history records