Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x9269…c444 other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+0%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%15W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$17
politics 39% −$16
sports 6% +$105
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 118 +0.4% -9.2% 5% 5% -9.5%
all 146 +5.2% -4.8% 10% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 10% -9.3%
10% -13.9% 7% -18.0%
15% -22.2% 4% -25.9%
20% -29.9% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×12.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses15 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage118d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $274 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $225 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $236 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $262 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $253 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $239 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $217 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $212 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $408 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $420 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $194 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $249 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 11 $247 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $437 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $461 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $204 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $208 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $226 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $237 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $337 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $175 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $240 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $180 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $197 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $242 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 30 $246 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 24h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 26h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 26h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 35h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 3d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 3d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 4d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $22 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $22 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 17d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $35 17d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $35 17d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $239 30d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $239 30d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.97 · official $29.97 (match) · 416 history records