Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9267…5696 sports 348 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$283 (+1%) realized +$282 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate84%291W / 56L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day47.2pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$245
14 days−$393
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$349
crypto 16% +$94
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +1.3% -8.3% 81% 50% -12.0%
≤30d 347 +12.3% +1.6% 84% 60% -10.6%
≤90d 347 +12.3% +1.6% 84% 60% -10.6%
all 347 +12.3% +1.6% 84% 60% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.6% 60% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -8.2% 50% -19.2%
15% -17.0% 11% -27.0%
20% -25.2% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$29 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$282
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses291 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions1
Markets (closed)347 / 348
History coverage25d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day47.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 72¢ 78¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $70 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $693 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $540 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $141 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $71 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $19 +$4 +19%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $147 −$113 -77%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $113 −$22 -19%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $8 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $41 +$9 +21%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $65 +$13 +20%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $285 +$24 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $77 −$25 -32%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $125 +$10 +8%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $224 +$29 +13%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $98 −$75 -76%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $8 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $69 +$7 +10%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $72 +$8 +11%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $22 $0 -2%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $483 +$8 +2%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $114 +$11 +9%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $24 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 15m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 72¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $46 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $251 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $693 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.96 · official $6.96 (match) · 1257 history records