Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9265…2cc0 sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$26,445 (-10%) realized −$26,469 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate79%66W / 18L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,966per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3,190est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,254
7 days−$507
14 days−$33,006
30 days−$37,729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$78,802
politics 37% +$50,713
other 0% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.4% -9.8% 78% 78% -16.0%
≤30d 72 +4.5% -5.4% 81% 74% -50.8%
≤90d 80 +3.0% -6.8% 79% 71% -19.6%
all 84 +2.7% -7.1% 79% 71% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 71% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 37% -27.2%
15% -24.1% 19% -34.3%
20% -31.5% 11% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$831 vs −$4,598 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$26,469
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses66 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$3,190
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage235d
Avg bet$2,966
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jurij Rodionov 81¢ 100¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 17 $402 −$402 -100%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 17 $402 −$402 -100%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $101 −$100 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $403 −$400 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $402 +$65 +16%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $402 +$80 +20%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $351 +$51 +14%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $298 +$65 +22%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $302 +$78 +26%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $303 +$166 +55%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $302 +$88 +29%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $303 +$126 +42%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $301 +$36 +12%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $302 −$302 -100%
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Jun 12 $301 +$40 +13%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $301 +$56 +18%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $202 +$92 +46%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $202 +$73 +36%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $202 +$131 +65%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $201 +$32 +16%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $201 +$30 +15%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 11 $151 +$52 +34%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 11 $152 +$94 +62%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $151 +$51 +34%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $151 −$151 -100%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 10 $151 +$43 +29%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $151 −$15 -10%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Alice Tubello Jun 09 $150 +$18 +12%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $151 +$49 +32%
Bratislava: Lukas Pokorny vs Alex Barrena Jun 09 $151 +$51 +34%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $151 +$22 +14%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 08 $151 +$61 +40%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $150 +$18 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $151 +$66 +43%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $151 +$31 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik Jun 06 $32,766 −$32,766 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Perugia: Moez Echargui vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet Jun 06 $151 −$151 -100%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 06 $151 +$36 +24%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $151 +$26 +17%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava Jun 06 $151 +$19 +12%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $151 +$44 +29%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 05 $151 +$30 +20%
Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 05 $101 +$20 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 81¢ $101 1h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 83¢ $101 2h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 88¢ $100 2h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 83¢ $101 5h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 85¢ $100 8h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 85¢ $402 30h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 77¢ $403 31h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $402 32h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 86¢ $402 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova BUY Viktoria Hruncakova 83¢ $402 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 87¢ $351 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 82¢ $298 2d
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 79¢ $302 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva BUY Alicia Dudeney 64¢ $303 4d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 77¢ $302 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Aleksandar Vukic 70¢ $303 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Marc-Andrea Huesler 61¢ $304 4d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 89¢ $301 4d
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren BUY Toby Samuel 88¢ $301 5d
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Petr Brunclik 78¢ $302 5d
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 84¢ $301 5d
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava BUY Taro Daniel 73¢ $202 6d
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Nuria Brancaccio 68¢ $202 6d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens BUY Gabriela Ruse 60¢ $202 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 87¢ $201 6d
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch BUY Dali Blanch 86¢ $201 6d
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 61¢ $152 7d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom BUY Henrique Rocha 74¢ $151 7d
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 74¢ $151 7d
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 77¢ $151 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.60 · official $123.60 (match) · 202 history records