Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9261…54e5 sports 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-5%) realized −$12 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%28W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$35
other 47% +$15
world 1% $0
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +73.1% +56.6% 80% 80% +32.3%
≤30d 58 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 48% -15.1%
≤90d 58 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 48% -15.1%
all 58 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 48% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 48% -15.1%
10% -27.7% 48% -23.2%
15% -34.7% 34% -30.7%
20% -41.1% 34% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses28 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)58 / 63
History coverage26d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +52%
CA Tigre vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 2.5 May 28 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $10 +$3 +27%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 1.5 May 28 $2 +$1 +32%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $14 −$14 -99%
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5 May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $12 +$8 +64%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $2 $0 +27%
CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5 May 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: Both Teams to Score May 25 $4 +$3 +65%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Molde FK end in a draw? May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-05-22? May 25 $4 +$3 +65%
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $4 +$6 +152%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 $0 +29%
Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5) May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$2 +97%
Kawkab AC vs. COD Meknès: O/U 1.5 May 23 $2 +$1 +67%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5 May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
CA Peñarol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 May 22 $2 +$1 +52%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: Both Teams to Score May 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen end in a draw? May 21 $4 +$1 +32%
CA Mineiro vs. CS Cienciano: Both Teams to Score May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: CA Juventud (-1.5) May 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 2.5 May 21 $4 −$4 -99%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5 May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $4 +$11 +291%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $2 +$1 +52%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $6 +$5 +92%
Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5 May 21 $6 −$2 -34%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $6 +$5 +90%
Spread: Zamalek SC (-1.5) May 20 $2 +$1 +32%
El Masry SC vs. El Ahly SC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $2 +$2 +90%
Spread: El Ahly SC (-1.5) May 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 24h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $2 24h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $2 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 65¢ $2 17d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 65¢ $2 17d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $2 17d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $2 17d
CA Tigre vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 17d
CA Tigre vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 17d
CA Tigre vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 17d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 18d
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $2 18d
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 65¢ $2 18d
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 65¢ $2 18d
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 65¢ $2 18d
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 65¢ $2 18d
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 65¢ $2 18d
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 65¢ $2 18d
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 65¢ $2 18d
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 18d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 52¢ $2 18d
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-26? BUY No 78¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.14 · official $9.14 (match) · 135 history records