Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

92 0x9261…f692 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip

Net edge-63%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate42%8W / 11L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$886per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$2,068now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$4

7 days−$4

14 days−$17

30 days+$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-61.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-66.6%	-69.8%	33%	0%	-9.7%
≤30d	15	-46.6%	-51.7%	53%	0%	-9.5%
≤90d	19	-57.8%	-61.8%	42%	0%	-9.6%
all	19	-57.8%	-61.8%	42%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-61.8%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-65.5%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-68.8%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-71.9%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 26% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -58% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,059) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -67% → late -50% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage

Net worth$2,068

Realized−$17

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses8 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage37d

Avg bet$886

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	No	100¢	100¢	$2,060	$2,063	+$3 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	Jun 20	$2,053	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?	Jun 08	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3?	Jun 04	$2,074	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3?	Jun 03	$2,070	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2?	Jun 02	$2,066	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	Jun 02	$2,062	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 1?	Jun 01	$2,059	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?	Jun 01	$2,055	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?	May 31	$2,051	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	May 27	$6	−$6	-100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 24?	May 24	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 21?	May 22	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19?	May 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 17?	May 18	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15?	May 15	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	BUY No	100¢	$2,060	1h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	BUY No	100¢	$2,053	22h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	4d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	12d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3?	BUY No	100¢	$2,074	17d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3?	BUY No	100¢	$2,070	17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2?	BUY No	100¢	$2,066	18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	BUY No	100¢	$2,062	19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 1?	BUY No	100¢	$2,059	19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?	BUY No	100¢	$2,055	20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?	BUY No	100¢	$2,051	21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	24d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 24?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	27d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 21?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 17?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	34d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	36d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,068.08 · official $2,067.05 (match) · 30 history records