Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9260…1068 sports 546 markets active 5d ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$470 (-7%) realized −$470 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%301W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$11
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$647
other 24% +$268
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +1.2% -8.4% 60% 32% -10.0%
≤30d 152 +1.9% -7.8% 59% 38% +8.7%
≤90d 546 +0.3% -9.3% 55% 40% -14.5%
all 546 +0.3% -9.3% 55% 40% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 40% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 30% -22.7%
15% -25.9% 23% -30.2%
20% -33.1% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses301 / 245
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)546 / 546
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 546 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $6 −$2 -28%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $4 +$4 +91%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $7 $0 +4%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $16 −$2 -13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $33 −$1 -2%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $14 −$1 -4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $15 $0 -1%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $6 −$4 -76%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $8 $0 -2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $12 −$1 -4%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $15 +$4 +28%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $7 −$1 -14%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $2 +$1 +26%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $3 +$1 +26%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $2 +$1 +24%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $4 −$1 -22%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $4 −$1 -24%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $4 $0 +10%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $3 $0 -9%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $4 −$1 -12%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $2 $0 +21%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $5 −$2 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 98¢ $1 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 90¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 88¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 88¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 96¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 94¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 59¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 59¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 42¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 40¢ $1 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $1 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 78¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 74¢ $1 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 90¢ $1 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 82¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 23¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 92¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records