Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
92 0x925e…ae34 sports 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$84 (-4%) realized −$83 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%69W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$86
sports 39% +$53
world 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -19.5% -27.1% 25% 25% -11.6%
≤30d 10 -12.7% -21.0% 30% 30% -10.5%
≤90d 10 -12.7% -21.0% 30% 30% -10.5%
all 121 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 55% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 55% -10.8%
10% -10.6% 49% -19.4%
15% -19.2% 42% -27.1%
20% -27.2% 38% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses69 / 52
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)121 / 125
History coverage244d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 36¢ 36¢ $141 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $76 +$122 +162%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $75 −$30 -40%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $92 −$92 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $3 +$2 +79%
Epstein client list released by June 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -62%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $14 +$2 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 30 $1 $0 -42%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $1 $0 -27%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1 $0 -10%
Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026? Mar 20 $1 +$7 +734%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $22 +$20 +89%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 21 $17 +$5 +28%
Will SK Brann vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Feb 20 $1 $0 +37%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-02-18? Feb 19 $1 $0 +32%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 27 $1 +$4 +367%
Over $22M committed to the Space public sale? Jan 11 $12 +$16 +138%
Over $20M committed to the Space public sale? Jan 11 $8 +$8 +101%
Over $18M committed to the Space public sale? Jan 11 $34 +$40 +116%
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $307 −$219 -71%
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $405 +$75 +18%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $68 +$17 +25%
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $30 +$5 +16%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $322 +$11 +3%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 08 $20 +$4 +21%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 06 $20 +$5 +26%
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals Dec 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
FC København vs. Qairat FK: O/U 3.5 Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Panthers Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Rangers vs. Hurricanes Nov 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 +$1 +56%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 +$1 +89%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) Nov 28 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $140 2m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 22m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1 29m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 29m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $1 30m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 30m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 65¢ $198 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $76 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $15 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $3 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $11 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $43 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $9 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $10 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $0 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $19 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $12 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $18 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.89 · official $192.91 (match) · 345 history records