Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
92 0x925e…e410 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$10
other 15% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +7.0% -3.2% 42% 17% -7.4%
≤30d 12 +7.0% -3.2% 42% 17% -7.4%
≤90d 12 +7.0% -3.2% 42% 17% -7.4%
all 12 +7.0% -3.2% 42% 17% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 17% -7.4%
10% -12.5% 8% -16.2%
15% -20.9% 8% -24.3%
20% -28.7% 8% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×103.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×73.79 per $1 lost it wins $73.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $62 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $28 +$2 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $60 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $21 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $40 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $51 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $51 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $62 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $28 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records