Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9259…aea5 crypto 681 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,329 (-3%) realized −$3,330 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%331W / 349L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5,851
world 0% −$428
sports 0% −$175
other 0% −$77
politics 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -2.6% -11.8% 32% 32% -34.3%
≤30d 676 -12.1% -20.4% 49% 39% -13.6%
≤90d 680 -11.6% -20.0% 49% 40% -13.6%
all 680 -11.6% -20.0% 49% 40% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 40% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 32% -21.9%
15% -34.7% 26% -29.4%
20% -41.1% 22% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$104 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$3,330
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses331 / 349
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)680 / 681
History coverage42d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 680 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 54¢ 56¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$18 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$59 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $254 −$103 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$29 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $239 +$274 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $519 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $260 −$246 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$92 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $258 +$220 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $119 −$115 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$140 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $119 −$15 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $256 +$51 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $136 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$109 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$146 +461%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $120 +$246 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $119 +$105 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $143 −$38 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$76 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $116 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$17 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$207 +1298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$136 +431%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $47 −$45 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $254 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $513 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $259 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $259 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $260 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.12 · official $50.10 · 1696 history records