Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x9257…d478 weather 765 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+0%) realized +$89 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%644W / 110L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,033now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$37
14 days+$70
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 369 +0.1% -9.4% 82% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 754 +0.1% -9.4% 85% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 754 +0.1% -9.4% 85% 0% -9.4%
all 754 +0.1% -9.4% 85% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×5.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.12 per $1 lost it wins $34.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,033
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses644 / 110
Open positions11
Markets (closed)754 / 765
History coverage22d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 754 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? No 100¢ 98¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $104 $102 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $103 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 17m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $103 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $104 19m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 20m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 21m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $103 48m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 49m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 50m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $104 51m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $104 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $104 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $104 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $104 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $104 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $104 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,032.54 · official $1,032.54 (match) · 1530 history records