Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
92 0x9255…6e3b other 186 markets active 8d ago coverage 69d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,208 (-37%) realized −$8,208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%60W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +320.4% +280.3% 42% 42% +5.9%
≤30d 77 +137.0% +114.4% 35% 29% +9.1%
≤90d 199 +67.5% +51.6% 30% 26% -11.0%
all 199 +67.5% +51.6% 30% 26% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +51.6% 26% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here +37.1% 25% -19.5%
15% +23.8% 21% -27.3%
20% +11.7% 20% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +92% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$80 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$8,208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses60 / 139
Open positions0
Markets (closed)199 / 186
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$120
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 199 Trades
no open positions (114 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Jun 17 $64 −$79 -123%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Jun 17 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Jun 17 $95 +$27 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 17 $90 +$480 +533%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $71 +$45 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $16 +$1,406 +8836%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 17 $78 −$88 -112%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $14 +$268 +1920%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $7 −$249 -3637%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $563 +$986 +175%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $478 −$82 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $227 −$102 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $483 −$346 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $156 −$133 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $220 −$40 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $48 −$47 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $51 −$49 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $65 −$62 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $258 −$170 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $240 −$86 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 08 $128 −$123 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $81 +$183 +225%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $26 −$26 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $464 −$102 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $124 +$36 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $89 +$163 +183%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $150 +$65 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $145 −$101 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $226 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $259 +$228 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $397 −$127 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $59 −$37 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $255 +$390 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $130 −$30 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $107 +$728 +677%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $94 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $289 −$107 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $100 +$269 +269%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $40 +$101 +254%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $33 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $269 −$174 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $59 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $30 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $43 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $148 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $170 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $132 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $28 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $22 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $34 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.02 · official $300.02 (match) · 3500 history records