Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9253…7d37 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-18%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% $0
sports 28% $0
crypto 9% −$1
economics 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.2% -28.7% 38% 38% -27.9%
≤30d 8 -21.2% -28.7% 38% 38% -27.9%
≤90d 9 -18.9% -26.6% 33% 33% -26.0%
all 9 -18.9% -26.6% 33% 33% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 33% -26.0%
10% -33.6% 33% -33.0%
15% -40.0% 33% -39.5%
20% -45.9% 33% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage90d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Mar 17 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.99 · official $1.99 (match) · 16 history records