Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9253…3028 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate20%6W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$11
other 29% −$3
politics 18% −$9
sports 11% −$13
tech 5% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 22% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 15 -1.4% -10.8% 13% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 25 +31.6% +19.1% 20% 4% -9.4%
all 30 +22.2% +10.6% 20% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.6% 3% -9.9%
10% +0.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -9.7% 3% -26.4%
20% -18.5% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses6 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage485d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $42 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $62 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -31%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $129 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $132 −$3 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $185 −$9 -5%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $243 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $238 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $238 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $238 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 31 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 30 $74 +$4 +6%
Lindenwood vs. Western Illinois Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-02-26? Feb 25 $10 $0 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Feb 25 $9 $0 +2%
Aleo airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $10 $0 +0%
Alabama vs. Missouri Feb 18 $12 −$3 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $15 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $14 29h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $51 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $51 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $37 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $24 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $40 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $41 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $23 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $34 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records