Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
92 0x9252…9a87 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$4
politics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -8.1% -16.8% 0% 0% -16.8%
≤30d 4 -1.6% -10.9% 75% 0% -15.8%
≤90d 6 +20.3% +8.8% 83% 33% -13.2%
all 6 +20.3% +8.8% 83% 33% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 33% -13.2%
10% -1.6% 33% -21.5%
15% -11.1% 33% -29.1%
20% -19.8% 33% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage36d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $79 −$6 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $72 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $79 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $4 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 35d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 BUY No 99¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 35d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 BUY No 99¢ $2 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records