Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:29:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9251…40b4 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate80%16W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$59
crypto 31% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 80% 35% -12.7%
≤30d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 80% 35% -12.7%
≤90d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 80% 35% -12.7%
all 20 -0.6% -10.1% 80% 35% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 35% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -21.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -28.6%
20% -33.7% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$23 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses16 / 4
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $112 +$13 +12%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $71 −$26 -37%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$4 +15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink Jun 20 $35 +$1 +2%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $35 +$2 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $35 +$6 +18%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $36 −$19 -53%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $106 −$21 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$2 +9%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er Jun 20 $35 −$27 -75%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $35 +$3 +8%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel Jun 20 $35 +$2 +6%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 20 $35 +$3 +8%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $35 +$5 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Nuno Borges 61¢ $55 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $112 28m
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Nuno Borges 55¢ $51 43m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 36¢ $45 56m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Liudmila Samsonova 85¢ $42 56m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 70¢ $35 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 49¢ $36 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 64¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $32 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $31 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $27 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink SELL Zeynep Sonmez 96¢ $36 21h
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic SELL Emma Navarro 92¢ $37 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot SELL Elsa Jacquemot 100¢ $42 21h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 8¢ $17 21h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu SELL Alina Charaeva 56¢ $32 21h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Mariella Thamm 16¢ $36 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $13 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $12 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 94¢ $35 21h
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Emma Navarro 86¢ $35 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $19 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Elsa Jacquemot 84¢ $35 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er SELL Veronika Erjavec 15¢ $9 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er BUY Veronika Erjavec 58¢ $35 22h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu BUY Alina Charaeva 59¢ $35 22h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu SELL Ayla Aksu 43¢ $27 22h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 55¢ $35 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records