Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
92 0x924e…3fe8 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-2%) realized −$187 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$289
other 42% −$285
sports 13% −$241
crypto 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -7.2%
≤30d 3 -31.6% -38.1% 33% 33% -37.9%
≤90d 6 -48.8% -53.7% 33% 17% -49.5%
all 30 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 37% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 37% -14.8%
10% -18.7% 33% -23.0%
15% -26.5% 30% -30.4%
20% -33.7% 27% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$83 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$1,009
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)30 / 38
History coverage248d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $166 $191 +$25 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $200 $147 −$53 (-27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 68¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 69¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $70 $120 +$50 (+72%)
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $99 $75 −$24 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $102 +$13 +13%
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $101 −$8 -8%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $50 +$81 +163%
Olympiakós SFP vs. PSV: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
AS Monaco FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Malmö FF vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Lyon win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 22 $100 −$1 -1%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 17 $200 −$119 -60%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Mar 16 $200 −$144 -72%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 15 $67 −$45 -66%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? Feb 04 $224 +$90 +40%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Jan 23 $200 $0 -0%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 202 Jan 19 $101 +$67 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 17 $100 −$16 -16%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 08 $1,185 −$405 -34%
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch? Jan 08 $201 −$5 -3%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 07 $10 +$40 +396%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jan 03 $1,147 +$314 +27%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 10 $202 +$373 +184%
Spread: Juventus FC (-0.5) Nov 05 $63 +$50 +79%
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 2.5 Oct 24 $50 +$31 +61%
Sporting CP vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5 Oct 23 $100 +$61 +61%
Athletic Club vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5 Oct 22 $100 +$61 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $44 19h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $100 21h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $71 22h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 33h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $35 35h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $58 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $100 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $100 16d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $99 17d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 17d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 17d
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 17d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $102 17d
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 17d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $38 17d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $52 17d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 24¢ $85 41d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 41d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 41d
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 50¢ $96 78d
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 89d
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 92d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 96d
Will Lyon win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 101d
Will Lyon win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? SELL Yes 14¢ $70 101d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 102d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 22¢ $30 102d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $42 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,008.94 · official $1,008.96 (match) · 590 history records