Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
92 0x924d…d117 sports 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$840 (+13%) realized +$795 · open +$45
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%89W / 94L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$251
14 days+$112
30 days+$758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$887
other 10% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 42% -21.4%
≤30d 183 +16.3% +5.2% 49% 48% -3.4%
≤90d 183 +16.3% +5.2% 49% 48% -3.4%
all 183 +16.3% +5.2% 49% 48% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 48% -3.4%
10% -4.9% 46% -12.7%
15% -14.1% 43% -21.1%
20% -22.5% 39% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$28 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$795
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses89 / 94
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions6
Markets (closed)183 / 189
History coverage26d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 80¢ 80¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+1%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $43 $69 +$26 (+61%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 39¢ 40¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Mattia Bellucci 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 10¢ $9 $22 +$13 (+141%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 +$49 +93%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $14 +$49 +340%
Noni Madueke: 2+ shots Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -23%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $108 −$107 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $99 +$47 +48%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $101 +$45 +44%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$14 +74%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -99%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $60 +$116 +192%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $86 +$68 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $71 +$56 +79%
Donyell Malen: 1+ assists Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ assists Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $100 +$70 +70%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $38 +$100 +267%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $131 −$129 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $60 +$33 +55%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $66 −$65 -99%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $27 +$20 +73%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $3 +$5 +197%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $59 +$18 +30%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $32 +$36 +114%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 11 $10 +$12 +119%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 11 $10 +$13 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $10 +$13 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $10 +$17 +165%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $19 +$17 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $74 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 39¢ $25 1h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $25 1h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Juan Estevez 43¢ $10 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 11h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 99¢ $63 11h
Noni Madueke: 2+ shots BUY Yes 66¢ $20 12h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 22¢ $14 12h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Daniel Rincon 99¢ $35 12h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 85¢ $30 12h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 61¢ $30 12h
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $7 12h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 38¢ $19 12h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 45¢ $22 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 12h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $39 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $108 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $145 13h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 28¢ $20 14h
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev BUY Atmane 44¢ $22 14h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 58¢ $101 14h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel SELL Gerard Campana Lee 100¢ $146 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $99 14h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 69¢ $101 14h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 30¢ $65 15h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 31¢ $48 15h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 26h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 41¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.09 · official $262.70 (match) · 353 history records