Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x924b…4aee sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$451 (-60%) realized −$502 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$401
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -77.9%
≤30d 3 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -77.9%
≤90d 3 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -77.9%
all 3 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -77.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.5% 33% -77.9%
10% -54.3% 33% -80.0%
15% -58.7% 33% -81.9%
20% -62.8% 33% -83.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$256 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$502
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage5d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 54¢ 90¢ $70 $117 +$47 (+68%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 52¢ $73 $77 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $87 +$59 +67%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $405 −$397 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $116 −$114 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $20 56m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $51 58m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $74 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $87 16h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $173 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $232 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $116 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.09 · official $172.68 · 8 history records