Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x924b…fda2 world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%16W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$5
other 18% −$1
politics 17% −$1
sports 11% +$1
economics 3% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 2% −$2
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.2% -17.9% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 28 -3.5% -12.7% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 69 -3.1% -12.3% 22% 0% -9.5%
all 76 -2.8% -12.0% 21% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses16 / 60
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage262d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 77¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 47¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $32 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $31 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $31 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $78 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $41 +$3 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $32 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $33 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $30 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $13 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $66 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $142 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $63 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $62 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $5 $0 -3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $32 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $32 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $22 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $12 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 47h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 26¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $10 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $32 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $27 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $2 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $30 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $16 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $15 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $34 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $33 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.61 · official $33.30 (match) · 277 history records