Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9248…b6e8 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%26W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$7
other 28% −$10
politics 9% $0
sports 7% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +126.6% +105.0% 27% 9% -7.5%
≤30d 29 +47.3% +33.2% 34% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 70 +18.0% +6.7% 37% 3% -9.3%
all 74 +13.6% +2.8% 35% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 3% -9.6%
10% -7.1% 1% -18.3%
15% -16.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -24.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses26 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage522d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $79 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 +$9 +24%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $11 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $72 −$3 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $35 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $5 $0 -9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $34 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $72 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $70 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $126 −$3 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $23 −$8 -34%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $124 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $64 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $39 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $74 +$6 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $76 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $36 +$5 +14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $53 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $4 $0 -4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $97 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $8 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $44 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $44 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $45 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $34 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $44 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $44 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $44 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $44 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $36 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.91 · official $14.52 · 339 history records