Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x9246…2736 crypto 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,214 (+36%) realized +$4,217 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%40W / 65L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$3,801
other 32% −$189
crypto 8% −$215
world 8% +$752
politics 2% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -20.9% -28.4% 25% 25% -24.4%
≤30d 4 -20.9% -28.4% 25% 25% -24.4%
≤90d 87 -16.6% -24.6% 36% 34% +41.9%
all 105 -10.9% -19.4% 38% 36% +22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 36% +22.1%
10% -27.1% 36% +10.4%
15% -34.2% 33% -0.2%
20% -40.6% 30% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$52 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$4,217
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses40 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage577d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 73¢ 73¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +121%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? May 10 $75 −$45 -60%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? May 10 $24 −$11 -46%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $357 +$849 +238%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit? May 01 $10 +$10 +94%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? May 01 $71 +$44 +63%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? May 01 $822 +$763 +93%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 22 $3 $0 -12%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$4 +176%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 13 $91 −$50 -55%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$4 -41%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 12 $7 −$2 -23%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 12 $4 +$2 +58%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 12 $3 −$1 -23%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 12 $8 +$5 +63%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 12 $2 +$2 +105%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 12 $1 +$4 +448%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 12 $1 +$2 +178%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 06 $6 +$8 +140%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 06 $32 +$10 +31%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 06 $13 −$12 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 56m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 2h
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 36d
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 36d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 29¢ $357 38d
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 41d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $75 41d
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 41d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 82¢ $59 47d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 81¢ $7 47d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 78¢ $10 48d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 71¢ $30 48d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 70¢ $51 48d
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? BUY No 64¢ $51 48d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 72¢ $30 48d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 71¢ $31 48d
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? BUY No 55¢ $10 48d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 65¢ $10 48d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 64¢ $9 48d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 64¢ $73 48d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 43¢ $511 48d
Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit? BUY No 51¢ $10 48d
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? BUY No 52¢ $10 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.49 · official $52.49 (match) · 381 history records