Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9245…8174 crypto 1227 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-1%) realized −$60 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate89%1090W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day73.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$13
14 days−$242
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$177
other 8% +$38
world 0% −$1
weather 0% −$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 416 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 1225 -1.5% -10.8% 89% 5% -10.8%
≤90d 1225 -1.5% -10.8% 89% 5% -10.8%
all 1225 -1.5% -10.8% 89% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 5% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 4% -19.3%
15% -27.2% 4% -27.1%
20% -34.3% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1090 / 135
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1225 / 1227
History coverage20d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day73.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 97¢ 86¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 56m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.91 · official $23.86 (match) · 2504 history records