Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9244…2411 crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-5%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate88%59W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$14
other 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -2.2% -11.5% 89% 14% -11.5%
≤30d 67 -3.6% -12.8% 88% 13% -12.2%
≤90d 67 -3.6% -12.8% 88% 13% -12.2%
all 67 -3.6% -12.8% 88% 13% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 13% -12.2%
10% -21.1% 4% -20.6%
15% -28.7% 4% -28.3%
20% -35.7% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses59 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage14d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $38 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 355 history records