Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
92 0x9244…643c sports 626 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$224 (+1%) realized +$229 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%298W / 572L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day90.8pace
Fees−$253est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$2,142
other 9% −$4
crypto 4% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 261 -85.9% -87.2% 6% 6% -20.3%
≤30d 509 -51.1% -55.8% 29% 25% -17.0%
≤90d 870 -37.8% -43.7% 34% 28% -22.2%
all 870 -37.8% -43.7% 34% 28% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.7% 28% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -49.1% 21% -29.7%
15% -54.0% 11% -36.5%
20% -58.5% 8% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$229
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses298 / 572
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$253
Open positions2
Markets (closed)870 / 626
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day90.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 870 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 60¢ 56¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 74¢ 78¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 426 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$6 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -69%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +841%
Will Petrojet SC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -110%
Cordoba: Miguel Tobon vs Andrea Collarini Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$7 -103%
Paris: Chloe Paquet vs Maya Joint Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$12 -104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -88%
CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -262%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -221%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -233%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -110%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
FK Spartak Moskva vs. FK Rubin Kazan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1379%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CF Montréal vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$7 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$3 -192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 74¢ $50 58m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $304 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 66¢ $202 5h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 60¢ $101 15h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 95¢ $449 19h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 90¢ $3 20h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 98¢ $525 37h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $303 38h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 60¢ $304 38h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $304 45h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 63¢ $303 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $10 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $424 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 98¢ $403 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $303 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 73¢ $302 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $101 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $101 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $101 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 99¢ $171 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 58¢ $101 5d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Anastasia Potapova 52¢ $10 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Anastasia Potapova 63¢ $10 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 60¢ $20 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $20 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $51 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $20 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $20 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $20 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 77¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.86 · official $142.16 · 3500 history records