Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9242…22a9 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
other 25% $0
politics 15% $0
crypto 12% −$1
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 10% -9.6%
≤90d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 10% -9.6%
all 32 +2.0% -7.7% 47% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 6% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -24.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage473d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $77 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $36 +$2 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $44 −$4 -8%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 10 $13 $0 -4%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 08 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9? May 06 $1 +$1 +47%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 06 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 34-38m viewers? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Devils vs. Stars Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $21 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $10 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $39 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $43 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $43 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $6 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $43 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $43 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $2 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $36 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $39 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $39 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $39 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 55¢ $38 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $40 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $44 27d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $13 358d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $13 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.75 · official $42.75 (match) · 98 history records