Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x923d…0924 other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$823 (+1%) realized +$823 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%9W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$1,329per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1,007
politics 44% −$80
economics 3% −$5
sports 3% +$78
world 2% −$236
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 +4.0% -5.9% 15% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 94 +1.3% -8.4% 10% 5% -9.0%
all 94 +1.3% -8.4% 10% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 5% -9.0%
10% -17.1% 5% -17.7%
15% -25.1% 5% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,606) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$5 · ×26.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$553
Realized+$823
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses9 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage79d
Avg bet$1,329
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $554 $553 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $3,834 −$6 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,614 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $1,412 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,325 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $2,786 −$4 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,606 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,787 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 04 $454 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 04 $692 +$1 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $654 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,003 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,007 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,421 −$2 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $34 +$15 +46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 20 $63 +$41 +65%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,716 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 19 $24 +$34 +140%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,691 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 18 $1,657 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,627 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,647 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $1,557 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $1,663 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $3,257 −$5 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $2,758 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $1,606 −$3 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: Other May 15 $1,608 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $1,598 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $4,833 −$6 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $1,605 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $554 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $516 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $517 5h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,365 3d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,368 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,409 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,412 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,673 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,676 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,315 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,317 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,246 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,263 10d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,265 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,358 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,360 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,604 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,606 12d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 12d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,056 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,058 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $803 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $804 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $735 17d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $736 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $653 20d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $654 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $454 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.29 · official $553.29 (match) · 247 history records