Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:48:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x923d…d1ca crypto 331 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$497 (+4%) realized +$513 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%92W / 227L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day56.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$305
7 days+$328
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$108
other 3% +$52
sports 1% −$75
weather 1% −$73
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -13.1% -21.4% 64% 39% -6.8%
≤30d 319 -32.2% -38.7% 29% 24% -9.3%
≤90d 319 -32.2% -38.7% 29% 24% -9.3%
all 319 -32.2% -38.7% 29% 24% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.7% 24% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -44.5% 20% -17.9%
15% -49.9% 17% -25.9%
20% -54.8% 15% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$9 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$513
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses92 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)319 / 331
History coverage12d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 18¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-64%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-86%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 56¢ 15¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 33¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-81%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $302 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $203 +$48 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$31 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $201 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $405 −$405 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $672 +$30 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $519 +$168 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $128 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $400 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $1,142 +$28 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $244 +$80 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $305 +$83 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $501 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $605 +$66 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $224 −$220 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $301 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $615 +$84 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $312 +$408 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $501 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $408 +$160 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $403 +$46 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $151 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $82 −$50 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$23 +57%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +38%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $22 +$19 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $302 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $110 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $136 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $203 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $201 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $405 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $672 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $519 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $400 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1,142 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $305 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $201 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $671 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $605 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $224 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $301 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $504 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $112 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $312 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.85 · official $169.01 (match) · 885 history records