Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x923c…6d03 crypto 851 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,126 (-5%) realized −$3,126 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate64%545W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$338est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$817
7 days+$1,040
14 days+$1,040
30 days+$1,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$165
other 29% −$1,619
sports 20% −$1,492
world 1% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +30.0% +17.6% 89% 53% +18.4%
≤30d 19 +30.0% +17.6% 89% 53% +18.4%
≤90d 851 -2.6% -11.9% 64% 22% -14.2%
all 851 -2.6% -11.9% 64% 22% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 22% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 15% -22.4%
15% -28.0% 11% -29.9%
20% -35.1% 9% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$47 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses545 / 306
Est. fees paid−$338
Open positions0
Markets (closed)851 / 851
History coverage71d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 851 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $245 +$339 +139%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $400 +$143 +36%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $756 +$25 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$43 +86%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $103 +$20 +19%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $450 +$244 +54%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $158 +$12 +8%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $42 +$8 +19%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $34 +$11 +31%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $99 +$51 +52%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $187 +$13 +7%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $109 +$91 +83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $132 +$37 +28%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $179 +$5 +3%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $115 −$4 -3%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $126 +$3 +2%
Spread: UD Las Palmas (-1.5) Jun 10 $41 +$1 +2%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $100 −$3 -4%
Will SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? May 17 $44 −$43 -97%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? May 17 $53 −$53 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score May 17 $181 −$181 -100%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score May 17 $228 −$228 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score May 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $221 −$108 -49%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? May 16 $20 +$82 +413%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $108 +$122 +113%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $119 −$13 -10%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $110 +$121 +109%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $103 +$136 +132%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? May 16 $34 −$33 -96%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $323 −$280 -87%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? May 11 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Paris FC end in a draw? May 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? May 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? May 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? May 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? May 11 $79 −$79 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? May 11 $124 −$40 -32%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 11 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $105 +$77 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 68¢ $101 26m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $7 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $21 32m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $21 33m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 33m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 33m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $266 43m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $35 52m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $57 53m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 53m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $7 53m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 53m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $210 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $95 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $543 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $400 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $41 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $36 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $51 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $48 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $181 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $11 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $26 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $159 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $292 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3364 history records