Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x923b…ae9f crypto 1824 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$259 (-5%) realized −$1,572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate69%1496W / 662L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day92.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,526
7 days−$1,527
14 days−$1,550
30 days−$1,572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 747 -49.0% -53.8% 43% 28% -70.7%
≤30d 2158 -17.6% -25.5% 69% 45% -29.4%
≤90d 2158 -17.6% -25.5% 69% 45% -29.4%
all 2158 -17.6% -25.5% 69% 45% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 45% -29.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 16% -36.2%
15% -39.1% 4% -42.4%
20% -45.1% 1% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1496 / 662
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2158 / 1824
History coverage22d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day92.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records