Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9236…db6d other 136 markets active 3h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$154 (+2%) realized −$7 · open +$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%49W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$383
7 days−$317
14 days−$254
30 days+$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$184
sports 29% +$654
crypto 3% −$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -13.8% -22.0% 37% 36% -13.2%
≤30d 128 -12.7% -21.0% 38% 38% -6.5%
≤90d 129 -13.4% -21.6% 38% 37% -7.6%
all 129 -13.4% -21.6% 38% 37% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 37% -7.6%
10% -29.1% 36% -16.4%
15% -36.0% 36% -24.5%
20% -42.2% 31% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$49 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$925
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$161
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses49 / 80
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions6
Markets (closed)129 / 136
History coverage49d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $444 $396 −$48 (-11%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 53¢ 100¢ $200 $378 +$178 (+89%)
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Yes 23¢ 48¢ $50 $104 +$54 (+109%)
Endrick: 1+ goals Yes 48¢ 34¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-29%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 +$73 +712%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Haiti? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -53%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$98 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $51 −$31 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $26 −$19 -73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $288 −$229 -80%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $26 +$20 +80%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $26 +$29 +111%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $26 +$23 +91%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Jonathan David: 3+ goals Jun 19 $97 +$88 +91%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 19 $51 +$62 +122%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 19 $51 +$49 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $26 −$24 -94%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $13 +$2 +17%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $51 −$21 -41%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $51 −$43 -84%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$42 -83%
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 +$67 +217%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$72 -72%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Son Heungmin: 3+ shots Jun 18 $76 −$75 -99%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $128 +$179 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$26 +52%
Harry Kane: 4+ shots Jun 17 $51 +$62 +121%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$4 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Haiti? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 4h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $51 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $101 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 15h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 15h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 15h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals SELL Yes 16¢ $20 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 9¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 43¢ $46 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $925.24 · official $891.39 · 310 history records