Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9235…3fbd sports 1081 markets active 0h ago coverage 441d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$234 (-0%) realized −$198 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate74%791W / 283L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$358est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$448
14 days−$643
30 days−$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$202
other 13% +$168
world 2% −$146
crypto 1% −$157
politics 0% −$143
culture 0% +$19
tech 0% +$7
finance 0% +$13
weather 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 35% -12.3%
≤30d 547 -1.4% -10.8% 76% 36% -9.8%
≤90d 839 -0.5% -9.9% 77% 38% -9.0%
all 1074 -2.0% -11.3% 74% 41% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 41% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 19% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 10% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

441d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$198
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses791 / 283
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$358
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1074 / 1081
History coverage441d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1074 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Miami Heretics finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 92¢ 92¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 81¢ 80¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Vancouver Surge finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 96¢ 63¢ $57 $38 −$20 (-34%)
Will FaZe Vegas finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? Yes 91¢ 62¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will G2 Minnesota finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 92¢ 50¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Set 1 Winner: Badosa vs Gauff Jun 17 $73 +$2 +3%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $34 +$6 +18%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $24 +$9 +38%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $70 +$3 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$15 +15%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $45 +$4 +8%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 16 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +7%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$15 +15%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $59 −$28 -47%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $26 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $24 +$3 +13%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $42 +$24 +57%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $63 −$21 -34%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $55 +$7 +14%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $60 +$14 +24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$16 -12%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA L Jun 15 $153 +$18 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $152 −$29 -19%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $352 −$2 -0%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs Galions (+2.5) Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $206 −$66 -32%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $170 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$13 -25%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $43 +$42 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) Jun 15 $92 +$19 +20%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 −$10 -19%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $178 −$34 -19%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $167 +$10 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $201 −$34 -17%
Game Handicap: RED (-2.5) vs LOS (+2.5) Jun 14 $52 +$13 +25%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $190 +$7 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $189 +$4 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $117 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 −$35 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $12 11m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 86¢ $10 53m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 81¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $50 1h
Set 1 Winner: Badosa vs Gauff SELL Gauff 100¢ $75 1h
Set 1 Winner: Badosa vs Gauff BUY Gauff 97¢ $73 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $40 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 85¢ $34 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $33 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 72¢ $24 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $73 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 96¢ $70 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $50 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $115 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 12h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $34 13h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 97¢ $15 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $49 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $31 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $55 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $14 15h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 92¢ $12 15h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 92¢ $34 15h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ SELL PlayTime 100¢ $20 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 15h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 86¢ $17 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $16 17h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $16 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.80 · official $297.80 (match) · 3280 history records