Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9233…1a6c world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 313d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% $0
politics 24% $0
economics 14% $0
other 13% +$1
sports 7% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.8% 71% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 0% -9.5%
all 35 -0.6% -10.1% 26% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1.5431567567143087% → late 0.32643910398322623% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

313d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage313d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Sep 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 13 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Aug 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 09 $61 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $4 $0 -12%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 08 $136 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $69 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $24 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $15 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $39 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $1 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $39 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $18 18h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $22 20h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $39 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $23 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $39 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $0 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $14 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $2 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.76 · official $38.76 (match) · 137 history records