Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9231…2212 crypto 96 markets active 18h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57,917 (-9%) realized −$57,728 · open −$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate66%55W / 28L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,925per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$28,758now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,190
7 days−$13,077
14 days−$14,818
30 days−$42,512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$37,448
other 7% −$3,562
finance 1% +$42
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.6% -12.7% 80% 0% -27.2%
≤30d 26 -19.4% -27.1% 58% 4% -21.7%
≤90d 59 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 2% -15.7%
all 83 -7.0% -15.9% 66% 1% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 1% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 0% -23.2%
15% -31.3% 0% -30.7%
20% -38.0% 0% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$4,635) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$1,818 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$28,758
Realized−$57,728
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses55 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)83 / 96
History coverage118d
Avg bet$6,925
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $8,322 $8,504 +$182 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $6,759 $6,872 +$113 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 58¢ $6,301 $5,734 −$567 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 70¢ 76¢ $3,952 $4,298 +$346 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 38¢ $1,804 $1,559 −$245 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 71¢ $800 $820 +$20 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $600 $603 +$3 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No 78¢ 77¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $122 $122 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 22¢ $110 $69 −$41 (-37%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No 80¢ 84¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 83¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? No 68¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 27 $500 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 26 $13,087 +$104 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 26 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 26 $32,224 −$13,294 -41%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? Jun 26 $3,526 −$1 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 24 $2,000 +$1 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 24 $1,502 +$33 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 23 $4,399 +$10 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? Jun 23 $1,001 +$3 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 22 $2,644 +$47 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 22 $3,011 +$9 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 22 $1 $0 -28%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? Jun 22 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 21 $2,011 +$2 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 19 $3,000 −$333 -11%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 18 $2,733 −$1,503 -55%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 18 $505 +$94 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $67,025 −$30,912 -46%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 03 $2,047 −$6 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 01 $100 −$15 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $21,868 +$1,562 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $71,738 +$3,908 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 29 $3,413 −$2,210 -65%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? May 29 $200 +$3 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May? May 27 $792 +$8 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in May? May 27 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May? May 26 $522 +$19 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 25 $22,906 +$122 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 24 $6,915 +$56 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 17 $20,422 −$480 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 17 $18,272 −$1,581 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 08 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? May 08 $13,238 +$583 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? May 07 $6,605 −$12 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $10,082 +$501 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 04 $1,110 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $4,294 +$81 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $6,632 +$339 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Apr 27 $200 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 17 $13,471 +$496 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 16 $4,988 +$131 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 14 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Apr 14 $3,914 −$210 -5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? Apr 14 $1,000 −$62 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? Apr 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $103 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $102 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 77¢ $102 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $445 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 75¢ $669 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $670 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 70¢ $97 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $97 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $74 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 74¢ $102 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 74¢ $102 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 74¢ $1,018 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $60 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $100 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $100 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $100 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 71¢ $102 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $501 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $102 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $102 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $102 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $102 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $102 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $102 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $102 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $102 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $102 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,002 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,758.30 · official $28,758.30 (match) · 2326 history records