Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x922e…5dd2 crypto 61 markets active 1d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized +$91 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%36W / 21L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$20
14 days+$10
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$5
culture 18% +$36
crypto 17% −$10
other 4% −$30
weather 4% −$5
tech 1% +$1
sports 1% $0
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +47.9% +33.8% 100% 100% +51.2%
≤30d 57 -5.3% -14.3% 63% 46% +6.5%
≤90d 57 -5.3% -14.3% 63% 46% +6.5%
all 57 -5.3% -14.3% 63% 46% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 46% +6.5%
10% -22.5% 26% -3.7%
15% -30.0% 14% -13.0%
20% -36.9% 14% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses36 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage28d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 1¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 1¢ $39 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $25 +$19 +77%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$16 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $70 +$22 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $5 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 29 $3 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 29 $1 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 29 $3 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 28 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 28 $2 $0 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $35 +$8 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $60 +$48 +80%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? May 22 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 22 $92 +$52 +57%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 22 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 22 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 21 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 21 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 21 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 21 $5 +$3 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $32 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 91¢ $44 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $60 4d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $10 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY No 98¢ $5 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 55¢ $20 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.11 · official $34.11 (match) · 167 history records