Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9228…0a4f other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$35
sports 21% −$11
culture 9% −$8
crypto 8% −$4
economics 7% −$6
politics 6% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage128d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $118 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $394 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $329 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $144 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $330 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $161 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $202 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $162 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $554 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $911 −$2 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $132 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $201 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $137 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $441 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $174 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $715 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $302 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $236 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $166 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 8h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 8h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 9h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 11h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 13h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 15h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 17h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 21h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 23h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $58 25h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $58 26h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 27h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $8 27h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 28h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 30h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 32h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 34h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 36h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 40h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 41h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 42h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 43h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $59 46h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.10 · official $57.10 (match) · 1277 history records