Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x9227…e497 sports 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,665 (-7%) realized −$2,632 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%81W / 150L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$578est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$360
7 days+$360
14 days+$260
30 days−$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$3,362
other 6% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% +36.3%
≤30d 80 +11.1% +0.5% 36% 36% -13.7%
≤90d 202 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 38% -13.5%
all 231 -4.2% -13.4% 35% 35% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 35% -16.9%
10% -21.7% 35% -24.9%
15% -29.2% 35% -32.1%
20% -36.2% 33% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$159 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,632
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses81 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$578
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage102d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: Boston Breach vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Vancouver Surge 33¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 26 $116 +$148 +127%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 26 $152 +$146 +96%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY Jun 26 $120 +$229 +190%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs C9 Jun 26 $79 −$77 -98%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $79 −$77 -98%
Valorant: Dplus vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 26 $86 +$71 +82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $403 −$398 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $87 +$241 +276%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $187 −$184 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $126 −$123 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $188 −$183 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $187 −$183 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $114 −$112 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $450 −$444 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $549 +$693 +126%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $187 +$364 +195%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $271 −$267 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $196 −$192 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $202 −$198 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $295 +$772 +262%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $58 −$57 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $130 −$126 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $289 −$284 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $551 +$232 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $142 +$409 +287%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $328 −$321 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $319 +$405 +127%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $248 −$52 -21%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $92 +$101 +111%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 12 $58 −$56 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $69 −$68 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $69 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $510 −$506 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $246 +$264 +107%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $86 +$161 +188%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $43 −$42 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $133 −$130 -98%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $43 +$91 +213%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $148 −$146 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $56 +$93 +167%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $24 +$31 +128%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $134 −$131 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $192 −$189 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $1,200 −$1,184 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Boston Breach vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Vancouver Surge 33¢ $2 1h
Call of Duty: Boston Breach vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Vancouver Surge 33¢ $32 1h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu SELL Toronto KOI 100¢ $264 1h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu BUY Toronto KOI 43¢ $116 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL FaZe Vegas 100¢ $299 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 50¢ $152 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Infinite 21¢ $31 4h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 36¢ $51 4h
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY SELL FLY 100¢ $349 4h
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY BUY FLY 34¢ $120 5h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs C9 BUY C9 41¢ $79 5h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY FLY 21¢ $79 6h
Valorant: Dplus vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL DRX Academy 100¢ $157 7h
Valorant: Dplus vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY DRX Academy 54¢ $86 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $75 11d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $329 11d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $87 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $187 11d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 25¢ $23 11d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 31¢ $103 11d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 19¢ $188 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $187 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $114 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $450 12d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $1,242 12d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $549 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $550 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $81 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $106 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $91 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 450 history records