Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x921d…efb8 sports 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 205d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$956 (-1%) realized −$1,033 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate76%139W / 43L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$480per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$298est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4,243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 205d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$298
economics 18% −$3,657
other 15% +$165
world 15% −$4
tech 12% +$197
culture 2% +$139
finance 1% +$27
crypto 0% +$33
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +12.4% +1.7% 69% 19% -14.2%
≤30d 58 +9.3% -1.1% 78% 33% -12.2%
≤90d 180 +2.2% -7.5% 77% 23% -9.3%
all 182 +2.1% -7.7% 76% 23% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 23% -13.5%
10% -16.5% 12% -21.8%
15% -24.6% 8% -29.3%
20% -32.0% 7% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$147 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$4,243
Realized−$1,033
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses139 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$298
Open positions17
Markets (closed)182 / 199
History coverage205d ⚠
Avg bet$480
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,636 $2,660 +$24 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $490 $498 +$7 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $285 $298 +$13 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $118 $123 +$5 (+4%)
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic + OpenAI 97¢ 97¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $92 $95 +$3 (+3%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 87¢ 92¢ $87 $92 +$5 (+6%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $66 $72 +$6 (+8%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $69 $71 +$2 (+3%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 67¢ 90¢ $33 $45 +$12 (+35%)
Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30? Meta 95¢ 97¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+7%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -3%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 16 $237 +$20 +8%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $238 +$3 +1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $1,565 −$112 -7%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 +75%
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0010 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $288 +$8 +3%
NBA Finals: Any Player to Record a Triple-Double? Jun 14 $44 −$1 -3%
NBA Finals: Player to Record a 5x5? Jun 14 $468 +$74 +16%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,877 −$210 -7%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 14 $133 +$232 +175%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $3,842 +$47 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $826 +$27 +3%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $91 +$9 +10%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 13 $196 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $2,266 +$18 +1%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $310 −$107 -35%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $1,200 +$112 +9%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $202 +$49 +24%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3,636 −$1,151 -32%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $186 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $496 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $466 +$1 +0%
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 09 $51 +$5 +10%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 09 $23 +$20 +90%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $67 +$3 +4%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $24 +$19 +81%
Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t Jun 08 $116 +$14 +12%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 06 $33 −$17 -51%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 61 million views in week 1? Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 06 $156 +$14 +9%
Will Nick Suzuki win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +33%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $82 +$18 +22%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 05 $164 −$7 -4%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 05 $18 +$1 +4%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Opening Tip Winner Jun 04 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Lindy Ruff win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? Jun 04 $75 −$75 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $23 +$27 +116%
Will Zach Werenski win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 02 $70 +$36 +51%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $96 +$4 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $574 +$77 +13%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $173 +$25 +14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? May 30 $85 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL No 87¢ $49 1h
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? BUY Anthropic + OpenAI 97¢ $110 1h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 10h
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $108 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 24h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 41h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $144 43h
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $52 45h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $143 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $25 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $39 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0010 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $2 2d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $29 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? SELL No 99¢ $148 2d
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 2d
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $73 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $76 2d
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,243.29 · official $4,243.30 (match) · 3500 history records